The 12-Day War

1. Is It Really Over?

It was 6 p.m. in Washington when President Trump stunned the world, again, with his Truth Social post announcing a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. “CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!” the president opened his post, with his characteristic use of all caps to. The surprise announcement, which detailed a timetable for ceasing hostile activities on behalf of Iran and Israel, ended a chaotic 48 hours of what was briefly a major American war in the Middle East.

The Iranian-Israeli-American military conflict flared up in record speed, and fittingly also seems to have ended faster than anyone could have imagined. It began with a surprise Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facility that also targeted its top nuclear scientists; evolved into daily barrages of deadly ballistic missiles from Iran that killed nearly 30 Israelis and created massive destruction; and eventually led to “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a B-2 stealth bomber attack by the United States against three Iranian nuclear facilities, reportedly destroying many of their capabilities. The final act came Monday afternoon, when Iran retaliated against the United States,  firing short- and medium-range missiles at the U.S. Air Force base Al Udied in Qatar without causing any damage. Shortly after it was revealed that Iran had informed the U.S. and Qatar in advance of the attack, allowing them to protect the forces and intercept the missiles.

Trump, in his ceasefire announcement, said it “should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’ This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!” Trump ended with equally warm words to both sides of the conflict: “God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”

So is it really over? Probably, but it is a messy and costly end.

Monday night brought with it deadly final attacks from both sides. Israel ended its part with a massive attack on Iran, apparently targeting a senior military official.

Iran’s final attack came in the form of five rounds of ballistic missiles fired at Israel. One of them hit a residential area in Be’er Sheva, killing at least three residents and wounding dozens. The hope for a quiet night, after spending 12 days rushing to bomb shelters to seek protection from nightly Iranian missile attacks, did not materialize.

A last-minute crisis almost derailed the entire deal. Iran launched a missile hours after the ceasefire was in place. Netanyahu ordered Israeli jet fighters to retaliate, even though the deadline had passed. At this point, Trump stepped in forcefully. “Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before. The biggest load that we’ve seen. I’m not happy with Israel,” Trump said. 

He stressed that Israel should not retaliate against “one [Iranian] rocket that didn’t land.” On Truth Social, Trump turned directly to Netanyahu, saying: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW.” What followed was, according to the White House, a “direct and firm” phone call between the two leaders, after which Israel agreed to scale back its retaliation and carry out only one bomb attack on an Iranian radar. 

Crisis averted. For now.

It will take weeks and months to assess the impact of this military showdown but as of now, the region appears to be in a better place: Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been significantly diminished, Israel is once again safe from ballistic missile attacks, and the U.S. asserted its posture as a world leader which does not hesitate to use military force in face of looming unconventional threats.

2. What Happens Next?

The ceasefire agreement deals only with the specific issue of mutual Iranian-Israeli attacks. Now, it is time to deal with the underlying issue, the issue that ignited the war–Iran’s nuclear program.

Twelve days of bombing, especially those conducted by the United States, have put into question the term “Iran’s nuclear program.” Based on Israeli and American reports, much of the project is gone: All top officials and scientists have been assassinated by Israel, and all key facilities used to enrich, process and weaponize uranium were severely damaged or even fully destroyed. In addition, Iran’s ability to deliver future nuclear weapons has taken a hit thanks to Israel’s targeted attacks on ballistic missile launchers and on missile stockpiles.

But even the most optimistic analysts don’t agree with Trump’s assertion that Iran’s nuclear program has been “totally obliterated.” Iran, it is believed, still holds parts of its highly enriched uranium, still has limited access to centrifuges and equipment stowed away in advance, and probably still has lower-level experts who could eventually take over the project.

To deal with the residual nuclear capabilities and with Iran’s future ambitions to rebuild its program, there’s a need for a new negotiated deal. Such a deal was on the table before Israel attacked. Back then, negotiations reached a dead end after Iran insisted on maintaining low-grade, civilian-use enrichment capabilities as part of the deal. 

Now, Trump is calling on Tehran to come back to the negotiating table. 

Will Iran show more flexibility this time around, after seeing the heavy price it pays when a deal is not reached? Or will it refuse to negotiate altogether after losing trust in the U.S., which has supported Israel’s attack and then launched its own offensive?

And perhaps there’s no need for a deal right now. If the military campaign set back Iran’s nuclear program significantly (as in years, not months), this may take away the urgency of reaching a new nuclear deal.

3. Unchanged Regime

For many Americans, there are no scarier words than “regime change,” a term that brings back bitter memories of a time when the United States tried to reshape the Middle East (and Latin America, and Africa) by the use of force.

Israelis, perhaps free of that particular past trauma, felt no reservations calling for regime change and demanding that the military operation not end before the mullahs are kicked out of power.

Trump administration officials took a different approach and repeatedly stressed that America is not seeking to harm the Iranian people, nor is it out to get its leaders. But Trump, either teasing or simply unable to control his feelings, leaned into the concept. “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

The war, as we now know, ended with the regime in place. No attempt was made to topple it..

And this may be one of the points on which Jerusalem and Washington disagree. Netanyahu would love to see the war end with the ayatollahs out of power. He believes only this can ensure a future in which Iran does not seek nuclear weapons and is not hell-bent on destroying Israel. Trump, struggling to maintain his image as Mr. America First, has no interest in taking on the dangerous adventure of decapitating a regime and installing instead a pro-western government. Trump has made no secret of his disdain for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and has no intention of falling into that trap.

4. Bibi and Trump, the War’s Unlikely Heroes

Two weeks ago, Israel’s Prime Minister was a political has-been. Beaten down by his failures in dealing with Hamas, and losing popular support, Bibi was grasping at straws trying to remain relevant. 

Trump also entered this global crisis in awful shape. His tariff wars had backfired, unrest over his deportation policies was growing, and his attempts to broker peace in Gaza and Ukraine had fallen flat.

The Iran war has given both leaders new lives.

Netanyahu is now viewed at home as a visionary leader who took a bold risk and attacked Iran, bringing the threatening empire to its knees and setting back its nuclear program, seen in Israel as an existential threat. How good are things for Bibi right now? So good that members of his inner circle have even begun discussing the idea of snap elections, hoping to ride the wave of popularity he’s enjoying.

And Trump—he’s once again talking about his long-held dream of winning a Nobel Peace Prize. But this time it sounds less like a joke and more like a potentially realistic option.

Both have a case to make—they broke with decades-old geopolitical axioms viewing Iran as untouchable, and their gamble paid off. At least for now.

5. Can the Iran Deal Lead to Ending the War in Gaza?

This war between Israel, Iran and the United States may have only lasted 12 days. But for more than 600 days, 50 hostages have been held in Gaza, at least 20 of them alive. The Gaza war is continuing to take its unbearable toll on Palestinians with no end in sight to their misery.

The Iran ceasefire offers a glimmer of hope. 

Once the Iran front winds down, Trump could decide it is time to move on and try to work his magic on Gaza. Theoretically, it might just work. Hamas is now left isolated and may be more open to a deal. And perhaps more important—Trump now has new leverage over Netanyahu. After giving Israel crucial support needed to end the Iran war with victory, he could come to Bibi and cash in. 

While Trump wants the Gaza war to end, Netanyahu would rather see it go on. But Bibi owes Trump a favor. And with Trump’s newly minted image as the protector of Israel, it will be much easier to sell an American-backed deal to the Israeli public.

Top image: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; President Donald Trump; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Credit: Avi Ohayon / Government Press Office of Israel, CC BY-SA 3.0; Daniel Torok, Public domain; Khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0).