Bibi’s Back in Town

Jewish Politics & Power is published every other week. Sign up for our newsletter for updates.

1. Can Bibi and Trump Rekindle the Fire?

Before departing Israel for Washington, Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters on the tarmac that his upcoming White House meeting with Donald Trump “can strengthen security, broaden the circle of peace and achieve a remarkable era of peace through strength.” Netanyahu also stressed the importance of meeting personally with the 47th president and highlighted the fact that he, Netanyahu, is the first foreign leader invited to the White House since Trump took office two weeks ago.

Prospects of peace and a good personal relationship are the two themes Netanyahu has been using to frame his visit to Washington. 

The Israeli leader, who is scheduled to meet Trump on Tuesday, views the visit as an achievement in itself. Fifteen months after Israel endured its worst-ever attack, and with a majority of Israelis believing it is time to call for new elections, Netanyahu sees the visit as a chance to do his magic again, to prove that despite being plagued by criticism at home, he still shines on the world stage.

The road to political recovery runs through the White House. But can Netanyahu win over Trump?

The first term was easy. Trump showered Netanyahu with political gifts, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem,  recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights and signing the historic Abraham Accords. No wonder that during Netanyahu’s reelection campaign entire buildings in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv were adorned with huge posters of him alongside Donald Trump. But by 2020, the relationship had soured. Trump could not get over Netanyahu calling then-president-elect Joe Biden to congratulate him and used harsh words to express his dismay. He later repeatedly accused Netanyahu of “letting him down” by allegedly reneging on a promise that Israel would take part in the U.S. operation to kill Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

Now, with Trump back in power and with Netanyahu in desperate need of support, it could be time to bury the hatchet. Trump seems to be over it. Since the election, he’s refrained from criticizing Netanyahu and has focused his rhetoric on the need to resolve the Gaza war and move on to a broader deal in the Middle East. 

The relationship might not be as warm as it was back in 2016—after all, a lot has changed in the world since then—but it should be good enough to provide Bibi with the photo op he needs. From the ashes of October 7, and after a bumpy year and a half with Joe Biden, Netanyahu is once again a welcome guest in the White House, once again a leader on the world stage.

2. Going For a Deal, or For a Bigger Deal?

Relationships are only one part of the Bibi-Trump equation. The second and arguably more important element is policy itself. And this is where it gets a little sticky.

Netanyahu arrives in Washington just as negotiations were scheduled to begin on the second phase of the Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal. The Israeli leader has maintained a skeptical approach toward implementing this part of the deal, which would include releasing all remaining hostages and fully ending the war and Israel’s military presence in Gaza. Bibi does not seem willing to commit to ending the war before achieving the “total victory” he promised the Israeli people. His coalition partners from the far right have made clear that they don’t want the war to end and that if a second-phase deal is signed and implemented, they might leave the government, putting Netanyahu in a state of political vulnerability.

Trump sees it differently. He has taken full ownership of the deal (even though most of it was negotiated by his predecessor Biden) and wants to see it fully implemented. Donald Trump, who in his inauguration speech promised to be a “peacemaker,” has no intention of letting this deal slip away.

The clash is not imminent. Netanyahu is likely to spell out the difficulties he sees in a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Trump, most likely, will stress the need to “get it done,” and both will agree to let the negotiation teams do their job and hope that disagreements over the final details of the second phase of the deal can be overcome.

But Trump, the self-proclaimed master of the “art of the deal,” is already thinking beyond Gaza. He has envisioned a bigger deal, one that carries a huge prize for Netanyahu but also a tremendous political risk. 

The president is expected to share with Israel’s PM the idea of drawing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords and having it normalize relations with Israel. For Netanyahu, who is 75 and may be reaching the end of his political career, this is a legacy moment. Trump’s vision could be Bibi’s ticket into Middle East history, as the leader who finally integrated the Jewish state into the Middle East.

But not so fast. No one knows better than Trump that a deal requires both sides to give up something. If Netanyahu wants to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, he will have to not only end the Gaza war but also agree to a two-state solution or at least to a clear path for reaching a Palestinian state in the future. Bibi is not there right now, nor are his coalition partners. 

3. Where National Conflicts and Real Estate Deals Aren’t the Same

The “day after” has been one of the most vexing questions the previous administration had to deal with. Who will rule Gaza once the war is over? Where will the funds for reconstruction come from? And what security arrangements will be put in place to ensure Hamas doesn’t use the Gaza Strip to attack Israel again?

Biden and his team had ideas, but they never got to the “day after” point, since the war outlasted Biden’s presidency. Trump, if the current cease-fire deal holds, may be at a point in which he cannot avoid the “day after” discussion.

So far, the president has offered only one thought on the issue: Relocation. Or, better put, forced displacement.

“When you look at the Gaza Strip, it’s been hell for so many years,” Trump said last week. “There’s always been violence associated with it. You could get people living in areas that are a lot safer and maybe a lot better and maybe a lot more comfortable.”

It’s a real-estate approach to the situation: Gaza is a bad place to live, so why not offer the tenants some better housing in Egypt or Jordan, and then everyone’s happy. 

The problem is that this real-estate rationale, as Trump was quick to learn, doesn’t work in the world of national conflicts. Arab countries swiftly and forcefully rejected Trump’s idea. They want no part in creating a new Palestinian refugee crisis. The Gazans themselves, though facing massive destruction caused by Israel, also see this as a non-starter. They didn’t survive the hardship in Gaza only to leave their homeland.

The idea seems dead on arrival, but Trump isn’t giving up, suggesting that Egypt and Jordan are indebted to the United States and can be pressured into agreeing. He may actually believe they will, or, more likely, he may view the idea as a bargaining position, one that can end up with the two Arab nations agreeing to a smaller role in the reconstruction of Gaza.

4. Steve Witkoff Wins Over Israel

A video posted by the U.S. embassy to Israel on Sunday shows the group of five female Israeli soldiers recently released from captivity thanking U.S. envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and then joining him in singing “Am Yisrael Chai.” Witkoff looks glowing. The young soldiers and their families look grateful. 

Only a couple of weeks into his job, Witkoff has emerged as the most adored Trump administration figure, at least in the Middle East. The Jewish businessman, who got the job thanks to his golf friendship with Trump, has been credited with sealing the hostage deal by using his straight-shooting approach to resolve a diplomatic deadlock. 

Witkoff, the legend goes, travelled to Jerusalem on the Saturday before the Gaza cease-fire deal was signed and demanded to meet with Netanayhu. When told that the Israeli PM doesn’t hold non-emergency work meetings on Shabbat, Witkoff made clear he was there to meet Bibi, Shabbat or no Shabbat. The meeting took place during the holy day and Witkoff, according to sources briefed on it, told Netanyahu in no unclear terms, that Trump likes the deal and that he’d better sign it. Bibi agreed.

This toughness, honed by years of closing real-estate investment deals, was coupled with a sentimental approach and by a true sense of curiosity. As special envoy, Witkoff insisted on visiting the Gaza Strip and seeing the situation with his own eyes. 

He also went to “Hostage Square” in the center of Tel Aviv to show his sympathy before heading to the hospital to meet with the released hostages. Last week, speaking alongside Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the Altneu Synagogue in Manhattan, Witkoff shared his own feelings about the hostage crisis, telling reporters how as a father who had lost a son, he can relate to the agony of the families anxiously waiting for the return of their sons and daughters from Hamas captivity.

Less than a month into his job, Witkoff has also gained some critics. They’ve claimed he has only a shallow understanding of the Middle East and does not hold the knowledge needed to deal with a decades-old conflict. This may be true, but at least thus far, with or without deep knowledge and understanding, Witkoff has shown results.

5. Miriam Adelson, the Unsung Heroine of the Hostage Deal

It was hard to avoid Dr. Miriam Adelson at the Trump inauguration. Throughout the ceremony and the surrounding celebratory events, she was never more than a few feet away from the president. Four years after the passing of her husband Sheldon Adelson, Miriam has not only successfully taken over the multi-billion-dollar family gambling business but has also assumed the role of a top Republican donor, one who is not shy about supporting Donald Trump or about using her political ties to advance issues close to her heart.

To the tune of an estimated $200 million in campaign donations to Trump, Miriam Adelson became the obvious heroine of conservative pro-Israel circles. What was less obvious is that she has gained a similar status among some centrist and left- leaning crowds. 

The reason? Adelson’s discreet but effective role behind the scenes in convincing Trump to put his weight behind the need to release the Gaza hostages.

According to reports in the Israeli press, which were backed by several top officials with firsthand knowledge, Adelson deserves a lot of the credit for making the hostage deal happen. As a reminder, Trump showed little interest in the fate of the hostages during the first year of the Gaza war and insisted, even in public speeches, that they were all dead. Adelson, who enjoys an open line of communication to Trump, convinced him this was not true and that there were dozens of living hostages who needed to be freed. She made him prioritize the issue, leading Trump to speak out and to issue his “there will be hell to pay” ultimatum. After prodding by Adelson, Trump also decided to dispatch Witkoff to the negotiations even before taking office.

Her work paid off, and Trump indeed took on the issue and used his clout to push the deal across the finish line.  Adelson’s actions thus upended the political dividing lines regarding the hostage issue. Conventional wisdom had it that pressure for a hostage deal was coming from the left, while the right supported Netanyahu’s hard line in the negotiations. Adelson proved that you can be as Republican as it gets, and as supportive of Israel’s right-wing politicians as possible, and still listen to your heart and use all your political might to help bring the hostages home.

Top image credit: U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv.