After NYC Mayoral Upset, What Kind of Bellwether Will NJ Governor’s Race Be?

Following Tuesday’s major upset in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, from which New York Assemblyman and Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani emerged victorious, local and state-level elections nationwide have new stakes and possibilities—including the one across the Hudson. And as is the case in NYC, Jewish voters in New Jersey are wondering where the candidates will meet them on issues of importance to the Jewish community.

New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary on June 10 yielded Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill and Republican candidate Jack Ciatarelli as competitors in the general election this fall to replace term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy.

The November 4, 2025, election comes in an off-cycle year and is what’s often referred to as a bellwether. Such elections tend to be considered early markers of national sentiment ahead of midterm congressional or presidential elections.

Both candidates for New Jersey governor have addressed the conflict between Israel and Iran on social media.

While New Jersey is the state with the fourth-largest Jewish population behind Florida, California and New York, the Garden State has never had a Jewish governor. This election will not upend that precedent after Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer only garnered 11.5 percent of the state’s Democratic votes in the primary. However, state officials and representatives have long been aware of their largely Jewish constituencies, an awareness that has been woven into campaign and administration platforms. 

“One of the litmus tests for us is a candidate who is going to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Jewish community, not just in word, but in deed,” says Linda Scherzer, chair of the Jewish Community Relations Committee at the Jewish Federation of Greater Metrowest New Jersey. 

The response from the New Jersey candidates on antisemitism and other issues impacting Jewish voters has been varied. Sherrill has platformed general antisemitism awareness in much of her campaign’s media outreach and past legislative work. Ciatarelli’s stance has not been as apparent, outside of a campaign message published in The Jewish Link informing voters of his plans to lower tuition costs for what may include yeshivas, while supporting “[Donald Trump’s] pro-family, pro-Israel, pro-school choice agenda that reflects the values of so many across the state.”

David Greenberg, a professor of history and journalism and media studies at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, NJ, notes the unique intricacies of navigating partisanship within the Jewish electorate generally in the Trump era, and more specifically within this race.

“Most American Jews are deeply opposed to Trump,” he says. “They tend to support civil liberties. They tend to support free speech. They tend to support culture and humanities and all the things that Trump is kind of making war against.” 

He also notes an apparent schism within this opposition that occurred after October 7, pointing to a widespread feeling that a lot of non-Jewish Democratic politicians have “been too weak in speaking out against antisemitism, against the really destructive rioting and protesting on campuses and elsewhere, so that while their sympathies are not with the Republicans on this, [Jewish voters] are also beginning to worry that the Democrats no longer have their back.” 

From 2011 to 2018, Ciatarelli, a former businessman and medical publisher, served in the New Jersey General Assembly for the 16th district, which includes parts of Hunterdon, Mercer and Middlesex counties in the north-central part of the state. He was the Republican nominee for governor in 2021 and lost to Murphy by a razor-thin margin. During the recent primary cycle, he was endorsed by Donald Trump, who many thought would please the Jewish community based on Trump’s Israel policy. 

However, Greenberg considers this endorsement an obstacle to Ciatarelli’s electoral prospects, which will be decided by a much larger Jewish electorate than the one the Republican candidate faced as a state representative. 

“I think [Ciattarelli is] in a bind,” says Greenberg. “He can’t hug Trump too tightly, because that will really backfire if he wants to stand the chance of winning. If [he wants] to make inroads with Jewish voters. Obviously there’s a certain number, a small number, who will be pro-Trump, but many more are going to be very anti-Trump or skeptical if he seems too pro-Trump.” 

Ciattarelli’s visits to Ocean County, home to Beth Medrash Gohova, the largest yeshiva in the United States, have earned him support from a large part of the state that already tends to vote Republican. During a visit to Linden, NJ, this past April, he connected with Jewish community leaders to discuss zoning policies, according to the local news site Lakewood Alerts. 

Sherrill, a former U.S. Navy pilot, federal prosecutor, and current representative for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, which covers parts of Morris, Essex and Passaic counties, is no stranger to responding to antisemitic incidents both nationwide and locally. For example, she has been praised by Rabbi Marc Katz of Temple Ner Tamid for “providing a sensitive ear” after the Bloomfield, NJ, congregation was targeted by a man with a Molotov cocktail on Jan. 29, 2023.  

Her intentions as prospective governor seem to reflect this. In a questionnaire sent to all candidates by Nassau Government Relations and published by the Jewish Federation in the Heart of New Jersey on May 22, 2025, Sherrill outlined her intentions to implement a statewide action plan modeled on the U.S. National Strategy to Combat Antisemitism of 2023. This includes appointing an attorney general to work with the governor’s Interfaith Advisory Council, as well as continuing current efforts to ensure the safety of Jewish students on college campuses across the state. 

According to Scherzer of the Jewish Federation of Greater Metrowest New Jersey, a priority for the Jewish community in New Jersey is “making sure that our university students are protected at Rutgers University and at smaller campuses across the state; that they’re supported by a governor that is prepared to act right and not just talk the talk.” 

“Nobody is in favor of hate,” says Scherzer. “And as we’re seeing the ways that [inciteful language] has been leading to violence, we know that inflammatory language can be really dangerous.”

Sherrill recently wrote a letter to Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi urging their consideration of more efforts and funding toward protecting Jewish institutions and events. This comes after the fatal shooting of Sarah Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, DC, in late May. The letter, which also cited the arson attack at the residence of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro in April and two other antisemitic incidents in Sherrill’s district, urges continued staffing and funding of the federal Nonprofit Security Grant Program and other initiatives aimed at researching and strategizing against future antisemitism. Her efforts come amidst ongoing and proposed federal agency budget cuts. 

Both candidates for New Jersey governor have addressed the conflict between Israel and Iran on social media. Sherrill is, and has historically been, supportive of Israel and its alliance with the United States. In a post on X on June 13, she called for the United States to, “prevent additional escalation in the region, stop Iran’s progress towards a functioning nuclear weapon, and ensure Israel’s right to exist.” 

Ciatarelli did not explicitly call for action, however, he expressed sympathy on his campaign’s Instagram for the “people of Israel and the Jewish community worldwide” amidst the crisis. 

Although Gottheimer is the only Jewish member of the state’s federal congressional delegation, Jewish interests have historically been heard in Trenton as well as on Capitol Hill. Democratic Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey recently co-sponsored the bipartisan 2025 Antisemitism Awareness Act, which was introduced in the Senate by Republican Tim Scott of South Carolina and Democrat Jacky Rosen of Nevada as a response to rising antisemitism across college campuses. The bill proposes an adoption of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition of antisemitism within the Department of Education to more clearly define whether, as stated in a press release on Rosen’s website, “an antisemitic incident on campus crosses the line from free speech into harassing, unlawful, or discriminatory conduct.” The release also notes that Gottheimer was one of the main champions of this legislation in the House. 

Current New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, the first Democrat to govern the state for two consecutive terms after a 44-year Republican streak, has taken considerable action for the state’s Jewish community. Most recently, he has released a statement expressing condolences to the family and friends of Milgrim and Lischinsky following the fatal shooting on May 21. Before this, he participated in the International March of the Living on April 25, 2025, which occurred in Poland on Yom HaShoah.

Scherzer recognizes the increased actions Murphy has taken to advocate for his large Jewish constituency during his tenure as governor, however, she notes that Murphy has left much to be desired. 

“[Murphy] will let us know that either he or his attorney general is making sure that there’s increased police presence outside Jewish institutions…so we certainly feel like he has our back,” she says. “But in terms of action, I think there was more that he could have done.” 

From both a state and national electoral standpoint, she notes, the Jewish electorate has generally risen, in terms of voter turnout and other political action, to the challenges it continues to face.

“I think that we understand that this is an inflection moment in Jewish history, and that the hundreds of years of antisemitism that we thought was in the dustbin of history, that was part of the past, clearly has not gone away,” she says. I “think that that has led to a greater sense of Jews standing up, wanting to belong, being involved in [the] Jewish Federation and other organizations. And we are very actively making our case to our local, state and federal lawmakers, because that’s what we do.” 

New Jersey residents will officially choose between Ciattarelli and Sherrill on November 5. The results of this gubernatorial race, which may be partially determined by whoever captures the Jewish vote, will be indicative of the trajectory of national sentiment ahead of a likely rocky midterms season.