So What Happens Next?

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1. The Numbers

Now that all have had a few days to digest the outcome of last Tuesday’s elections, it is time to take a quick look at what happened, and try to figure out what American Jews can expect in the coming weeks, months and years.

First—the numbers.

Analyzing the Jewish vote is not only a popular pastime for Jewish politicos, it also bears the outlines of an ancient Jewish ritual. Every four years (and for some more observant watchers, every two years with the midterm elections,) Jewish Democrats and Republicans turn to the public with opposing messages: Republicans argue that they’ve improved their standing among Jewish voters and that they have the numbers to prove it. Democrats post their own numbers and claim that nothing has changed and that Jewish Americans remain overwhelmingly on their side. Then they go back into hibernation until the next round of this endless debate.

This year there are a few numbers to pick from: Exit polls carried out by National Election Pool and analyzed by NBC found that 78 percent of Jewish voters chose Kamala Harris and 22 percent preferred Donald Trump. Fox News’s analysis of exit polls gave Harris 66 percent of the Jewish vote and Trump 32 percent. A survey commissioned by J Street came in somewhere in the middle, with 71 percent for Harris and 26 percent for Trump.

There are two ways of looking at these numbers: If you’re a committed activist for either side, you’ll choose the poll that serves you best, compare it to polls from previous elections and find that your candidate improved their standing among Jews.

If you’re a regular person who just wants the bottom line, you’ll take a broader look at the polls and find that, by and large, nothing has changed. Harris did great among Jewish voters, just as almost every Democratic candidate has done in recent decades, and Trump performed poorly, or at least in line with all his Republican predecessors.

2.  Why Jews Remain the Most Reliable Dem Support Group

As meaningless as these numbers are, this year is a bit different.

Republicans came into these elections with a theory, and with the resources to back it. The theory went pretty much along these lines: After a year of rising antisemitism, American Jews are scared and believe that the forces scaring them and their children come from the far left, the same far left that is part of the Democratic Party. According to this perception, Jews, even those who traditionally vote Democrat, will turn their back on the party, believing that Trump can restore safety and security and quash far-left antisemitism. This is the premise behind a very popular TV ad issued by the Republican Jewish Coalition, featuring three Jewish women at a deli, discussing their troubles and concluding: “I never voted Republican in my life, but I am voting Trump.”

If you’re a regular person who just wants the bottom line, you’ll take a broader look at the polls and find that, by and large, nothing has changed.

Most Jewish Americans didn’t buy into this theory. Jewish voters remain, even now, the most reliable Democratic voting group by religion. The fear of antisemitism and the tense relationship between President Biden and the Israeli government didn’t really move the needle.

Why?

Much of it, and we’re moving here from the realm of polling to that of educated guessing, has to do with Donald Trump. As concerned as Jewish Americans may have been over far-left antisemitism, and maybe even over Biden’s (very minor) pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Trump, a candidate who represents everything the community opposes on immigration, women’s rights, LGBTQ issues, democracy, economy, social justice and American international posture, and who is also personally tainted with allegations of turning a blind eye to antisemitism and of engaging with white nationalists.

There is no data to indicate whether Jewish voters would have broken with Democrats if the GOP had selected a different candidate, but clearly even if the ground was ready for such an exodus, Trump wasn’t the candidate to take Jewish voters across the partisan divide.

There’s one important exception: Orthodox Jews. Trump and the Republicans already enjoyed strong support among pro-Israel Modern Orthodox, and now Trump has increased his support with the ultra-Orthodox as well. This explains the staggering 46 percent of the vote he got in New York, where Harris won only 54 percent of the Jewish vote.

3. An Ocean Separates Us

Given these numbers, it is clear why most American Jews went to bed Tuesday with heavy hearts. But across the ocean in Israel, Jewish Israelis woke up Wednesday morning with smiles on their faces.

PM Netanyahu was quick to praise “history’s greatest comeback.” Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stated that now is time for “complete victory” by working with Trump to annex the West Bank.

And on the set in the TV studios of Channel 14, Israel’s right-wing network similar to Fox News, anchors raised their cups and drank l’chaim in celebration of Trump’s victory. (This actually happened on more than one show.)

When trying to figure out how same-sized Jewish communities in different places hold such opposing political opinions, it is a good idea to keep in mind a few factors: Israelis believe Trump will give Netanyahu a free hand, American Jews don’t want that to happen; Israeli Jews believe Trump will fight antisemitism, American Jews think that he is antisemitic; and most important, American Jews care about a variety of issues and believe Trump’s views are destructive on all of these issues; Israelis, on the other hand, live in Israel and don’t have to care about abortion, immigration, the U.S. economy or the future of democracy in America.

4. Reading the Nomination Tea Leaves

It’s really early in the process and as of Tuesday morning, Trump has only begun putting together his cabinet. But here are a few data points that could help us guess where the 47th president is heading.

So far, Trump has announced the appointment of two Jews: Stephen Miller will serve as deputy chief of staff, placing him in a key position to advance a tough anti-immigration policy. Former New York Congressman Lee Zeldin will serve as head of the Environmental Protection Agency, tasked by Trump with dismantling the Biden-era earth-friendly environmental regulations and legislation. 

There’s not much to learn from Trump’s choice of these two Jewish Republicans: Miller is a hard-liner, Zeldin is closer to the mainstream. The only quality both share is complete and total loyalty to Donald Trump.

On foreign policy and national security, again it’s a mixed bag.

Trump started the process by informing the entire world in a social media post that former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will not be invited to join his cabinet. This was a blow for pro-Israel activists, at least for those who support the Likud government. Haley was a pro-Israel warrior at the United Nations, and Pompeo actively worked to change U.S. policy on Israel and end the rule deeming Israeli West Bank settlements illegal. 

But then came news of Trump’s picks, and Israelis could breathe a sigh of relief: Elise Stefanik, who became nothing less than a national hero in Israel after crucifying Ivy League presidents during a House hearing over their alleged refusal to act against antisemitism on campus, will serve as Trump’s ambassador to the UN. Senator Marco Rubio, known for his long-standing support for Israel in the Senate, will be Trump’s secretary of state. These are two pro-Israel nominations that should please Netanyahu. As is the case with the choice of Rep. Mike Waltz to serve as national security adviser. 

But it’s not only about being pro-Israel. Trump’s choices indicate an attempt to steer away from isolationist forces within the MAGA movement and to keep them out of positions of power. A choice of Vivek Ramaswamy for secretary of state or of Tulsi Gabbard for a top national security position—both names that were mentioned in the selection process—would have indicated a very different direction.

5. A Deal to Be Had

The big question for the next couple of months relates to the hostage deal. One hundred and one Israelis and foreign nationals are still held by Hamas in Gaza. Many, including family members of the hostages, believe that the elections have created a unique opportunity to bring their loved ones home.

It goes like this: Biden, a lame duck president who has nothing to lose and is free of all political constraints, leans heavily on Netanyahu and forces him to enter a deal that would release the hostages and end the war. True, it’s not only up to Bibi, but there’s a good chance of achieving a deal if Netanyahu plays along, and Biden may want to give it one more try, this time with real pressure on Israel.

Or, it may be Trump’s moment. Will the incoming president try to pull off a Ronald Reagan Iran hostage deal and line up all parties for an agreement on his first day in the White House? Those who believe in this possibility see Trump as eager to show he can reach the deal his predecessor couldn’t land, and that Netanyahu may be more willing to show some good will to Trump, as an opening gesture that could help smooth the next four years.

Either way, for 101 men, women and children languishing in Hamas tunnels, this would be welcome news.

Top image: Exit polls show how Jewish-Americans voted in the 2024 presidential election (Credit: Gage Skidmore).