The Sunshine State’s Midterm Mixed Bag
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1. Florida primaries offer a mixed bag
It’s not over yet. Midterm primaries, which by now can be safely dubbed “the Israel primaries,” are still going on.
Last week was Florida’s turn. The Sunshine State, once blue, then a swing state and now a solid Republican stronghold, provided something for everyone. Pro-Israel supporters registered a nice count of wins, while progressive critics of Israel also had a good day.
The most watched race was for the Democratic Senate nomination. It pitted Alexander Vindman, a Jewish former Soviet refugee, against Democratic Socialist Angela Nixon. Vindman is the retired Lt. Col. who played a dramatic role in Donald Trump’s first term as the whistleblower who told America about Trump’s controversial phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which led to Trump’s first impeachment. Vindman holds moderate views and ran a well-funded campaign. Nixon, who promoted pro-Palestinian legislation as a state representative and who describes Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide,” led a shoestring operation, hardly spent any money, but enjoyed the support of progressives and labor unions.
At the end of the day, Nixon emerged as the surprising winner by a wide margin. She will face Republican incumbent Ashley Moody. It will be a difficult, perhaps impossible, race for Nixon to win, despite the fact that Moody hasn’t actually been elected by Florida voters before, having been appointed to the seat in January of 2025 by Gov. Ron DeSantis when Marco Rubio left to join the Trump administration.
Despite Vindman’s loss, it was not a terrible night for pro-Israel Democrats. Representatives Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz, both Jewish and both viewed as among the most pro-Israel Democrats in Congress, won their races handily. Due to redistricting, Wasserman Schultz switched to a majority Black-district, succeeding over Black candidates who had criticized her decision to do so. Moskowitz, whose district was also reshaped, beat a DSA candidate to win a chance for a 4th term in Congress.
In the race to succeed DeSantis, who is term-limited, pro-Israel Republican Byron Donalds beat firebrand newcomer James Fishback, who came under fire by popularizing the antisemitic term “goyslop,” and will now face pro-Israel Democrat David Jolly.
What does this all mean?
It means that despite the great strides made by progressives and DSA Democrats who share a critical viewpoint of Israel, the story isn’t over. Democrats who believe in a strong U.S.-Israel relationship, in funding military aid to Israel, and in curbing their criticism of Israeli government actions are still around and can even win here and there. Sure, the winds are changing, but not as fast or dramatically as some may think.
2. Is AIPAC becoming too toxic for Republicans?
The pro-Israel lobby AIPAC has emerged as a source of controversy in the current election cycle. The lobby’s decision to pour millions of dollars into the Democratic primaries against progressives has led most Dems to distance themselves from AIPAC. Others lost the group’s backing after voting in favor of eliminating U.S. military funding to Israel.
Now, it seems that the backlash may be reaching Republicans as well.
According to Axios, Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers turned down AIPAC’s support, asking the group’s president to cancel a planned negative ad campaign against his rival, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
During the primary race, AIPAC invested heavily—and unsuccessfully—in defeating El-Sayed, who is a harsh critic of Israel. Now, the group was poised to keep up the fight by attacking El-Sayed in order to get Rogers elected. According to the report, the Rogers campaign feared that AIPAC’s involvement would backfire and would be used by his rival to depict Rogers as being propped up by the pro-Israel lobby.
For AIPAC, this could serve, perhaps, as a lesson about the limits of its power and the danger of overkill. Sometimes spending copious amounts of money draws too much attention and actually helps the other side.
Another test for AIPAC’s power played out in California’s 14th Congressional District, in a Democratic runoff to replace Rep. Eric Swalwell, who stepped down after facing allegations of sexual misconduct. AIPAC’s Super PAC put down $2.5 million in support of Melissa Hernandez in the hope that she’d defeat progressive Aisha Wahab, who holds critical views of Israel. Hernandez lost, but for AIPAC, this loss wasn’t as painful. Thanks to the lobby’s involvement, the race, which started off with a double-digit advantage for Wahab, ended up with her winning by only a small margin. AIPAC has demonstrated that its intervention can move the needle. Not enough to actually win, but enough to make anti-Israel candidates think twice before entering the race.
3. Dems for Mike Rogers?
Back in Michigan, Rogers is hoping to win over moderate Democrats who are displeased with the choice of El-Sayed as their candidate. Key to this constituency, in so much as this constituency exists, are Jewish Michigan voters. One of the speakers at the launch of “Democrats for Rogers,” according to JNS, was Rabbi Asher Lopatin, director of community relations at the Jewish Federation of Greater Ann Arbor. He’s a self-professed Democrat who has been critical of El-Sayed and now says he’s ready to cross the line. “Sadly, Abdul El-Sayed has shown only contempt for Jews as a people, and called my people bloodthirsty,” Lopatin said.
There are nearly 130,000 Jews in Michigan, a mere 1.3 percent of the state’s population. But in a tight race, even if a few decide to stay home or vote against El-Sayed, it could make a difference in an election that is critical for Democrats seeking to take over the Senate.
4. Can Darline Graham carry her late brother’s pro-Israel torch?
The late South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham was among the best-informed in the Senate on national security and foreign affairs. That made him even more of an asset for Israel and the pro-Israel community. Not only was Graham a staunch supporter of the Jewish state and a defender of its hawkish policies, but he was also seen as a leading expert in the field, earning him a spot in President Trump’s close circle when it came to decisions on Israel, Iran and the Middle East.
Now, Trump is backing Graham’s sister Darline, currently filling his seat on an interim basis, for a full six-year term representing South Carolina in the Senate.
But a recent debate revealed that when it comes to issues relating to America’s posture overseas, Darline Graham is no Lindsey Graham. Facing off with the other Republican candidate, Ralph Norman, she was asked what sounded like a basic foreign policy question: What are the U.S. interests in Taiwan and the South China Sea? Graham stumbled. “National security is not my thing,” she admitted. “I’m not that informed on national security.”
It was an embarrassing moment for the candidate, though not necessarily a career-ending one. But for those pro-Israel Americans watching, it was a telling moment: Whoever wins the primary, and the election, will struggle to fill the shoes of the most pro-Israel, pro-American-intervention lawmaker in recent Republican history.
5. Israeli expats head to the polls. And it’s quite a journey
Israelis will go to the polls on October 27, for what is seen by many as the most crucial election in decades. At the core of the multi-party race is one key question: Will Netanyahu pull off another win, or has the run of Israel’s longest-serving prime minister reached its end? With a nation bleeding and torn after the October 7, 2023 attack, the subsequent Gaza war, Lebanon war, Iran war and then another Iran war, Israelis feel this is a moment of truth: doubling down on Netanyahu’s policies, or changing course.
Israel has no absentee voting. Everyone must vote in person on election day, with minor exceptions made for diplomats and officials posted overseas, as well as soldiers in bases, prisoners and those in hospitals.
For years, expat Israelis in the United States and elsewhere were relegated to the position of watching from afar. Few, perhaps several hundreds or thousands, would bother flying back home to vote.
This time, given the importance of the elections, Israelis living overseas are ready to rejoin the democratic process. Flight tickets from the U.S. to Israel were practically sold out a day after the election date was announced, despite the skyrocketing airfare prices due to the limited number of airlines currently flying to Israel and the worldwide Iran-related oil price surge.
Estimates of expats who intend to come and vote run anywhere between 30,000 to 70,000, meaning Israelis overseas could be responsible for 2-3 Knesset seats, potentially enough to sway the elections.
Netanyahu and the Likud, sensing that most overseas voters are likely to side with their rivals, have tried to curb the wave of election tourism and even took legal action against an organization trying to promote voting of Israelis abroad.
That may be unnecessary. While the sense on social media is that all those traveling to Israel for the elections are supporters of the anti-Bibi “change bloc,” it is quite possible that others are overlooked: Likud supporters living in the U.S. and Europe, and thousands of ultra-Orthodox Israeli citizens abroad, could just as well pay a couple thousand dollars, hop on a plane and make it to Israel by election day.
(Top image credit: Credit: Vets and Badges (CC BY-SA 4.0) / Florida House of Representatives / Map by Free Vector Maps)