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1. Assad’s Down. Who Gets the Credit?
Blink and you might have missed it. Within 48 hours over this weekend, while attention to the Middle East was focused on Gaza and Lebanon, Syria went from a stable dictatorship to a free country, whose despot fled to Russia and whose prison doors were broken open to release thousands of political prisoners held by the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Apart from a few high-ranking officials in the Kremlin and among Iran’s ruling ayatollahs, no one shed a tear over Assad’s demise. His cruelty toward his own people knew no limit, as did his determination to stay in power despite the clear objections of the Syrian people and most world leaders.
Among the many critical questions Assad’s fall presents to the United States, Israel and the West, there’s also one that bears little practical importance, but is no less crucial for political leaders to contemplate: Who drove Assad out of power?
President Biden was quick to claim the victory. In a special address Sunday from the White House, Biden stated, “For years, the main backers of Assad have been Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. But over the last week, their support collapsed—all three of them—because all three of them are far weaker today than they were when I took office.” Biden, as well as a senior administration official who briefed reporters after the speech, argued that, thanks to actions taken by the current administration, all of Assad’s backers had been downgraded: Russia lost its ability to defend Assad because of the losses it incurred in fighting U.S.-backed Ukraine; Iran has been weakened by Biden’s decision to deploy troops and defense systems in the region, which allowed Israel to take on the Islamic Republic directly and indirectly; and Hezbollah, according to the White House, was basically dismantled by Israel, with the help of American military and diplomatic support and thanks to a green light from the White House.
It’s a reasonable claim to make and one that gives Biden’s legacy a much needed boost in the final weeks of his presidency.
But there are others claiming credit, too.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a statement made Sunday, hours after Assad fled Syria, seemed to imply that the dictator’s fall came about only because of Israel’s actions. “This collapse is a direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves of this tyranny and its oppression,” he said.
So was it Biden or Bibi? Wait, there’s another player.
“Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success,” is how president-elect Donald Trump chose to describe the reasons for Assad’s demise, giving some credit to Israel for its actions. But does he think Biden deserves a thank-you note for forcing Putin into an endless war that drew Russia’s manpower and resources? No way. In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, aired Sunday, Trump once again argued that had he won the election in 2020 (or, as he put it, “had I assumed, kept control”) then, “Number one, Israel wouldn’t have happened. Number two, Ukraine would’ve never happened. It would’ve never happened, Ukraine, Russia.”
So, Assad lost power because of Biden’s pressure on Russia and Iran and Hezbollah, or due to Bibi’s war on Iran and its proxies, or thanks to wars that never should have happened. Each leader has only his own legacy in mind and his own explanation of this dramatic moment in the Middle East’s history.
2. Trump’s Tough Talk and Mixed Message
Last week, devastating news hit close to home. The Israeli military announced that Omer Neutra, a dual American-Israeli citizen from Long Island who had volunteered to serve in the IDF, was killed in the October 7 Hamas attack. Neutra was considered until that moment a hostage taken alive and held in Gaza.
The shock and grief were felt all across the United States. His parents, Orna and Ronnen, had crisscrossed the country these past 14 months, pleading for the release of their son. Omer was one of seven American citizens held in Gaza. Only three of them are still believed to be alive.
President Biden issued a statement, as did Vice President Kamala Harris. Flags in New York state were lowered to half-staff, and at the State Department, the hostage and wrongful detainee black flag was raised in honor of Neutra.
President-elect Trump, reacting to the news, issued a statement—his first on the hostage issue. “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”
As a policy statement, it was unusual, to say the least. But in the Trump world, it was a perfectly fitting expression of anger and threat. Trump seemed to set an ultimatum for the hostage release and to make clear he will take unprecedented steps against Hamas if they don’t comply. But here’s the question: What does an ultimatum really mean? The demand for an immediate release of all hostages is already on the table and has been voiced numerous times by Netanyahu, Biden and many world leaders. Also, even under the best-case scenario, the hostage release process will take many weeks, so it is hard to see it completed by January 20.
And as to the threat, how will Trump hit Hamas “harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States?” A military ground operation in Gaza is off the table, since Hamas has ordered its guards to kill hostages if military forces approach. Economic and military sanctions against Hamas are already in place. So what’s left?
Furthermore, even now, with just over a month until he assumes office, it is unclear how Trump views the hostage issue and where he sees releasing the 100 captives in his priority list.
On the one hand, last week’s statement seems to imply that Trump is eager to resolve the issue as soon as possible and is willing to exert the power of his presidency to make it happen. But at the same time, Trump keeps on saying that he does not believe most of the hostages are alive. In his hour-long interview with NBC’s Kristin Welker, Trump repeated this view. “I’m not a big believer in the fact that they are too many of them living, sadly,” Trump said. “I hate to say it, I think there are far fewer hostages [alive] than people think.” These statements, aside from being despairing for families, run counter to the assessments of Israeli defense and intelligence officials, who believe that roughly 50, half of the hostages held in Gaza, are alive. Activists and family members have been trying in recent weeks to convey this message to Trump and his team, apparently with only partial success.
3. Israelis Believe in a Trump Game-Changer
Trump left key questions of his hostage release plan unanswered. But this non-policy statement was received in Israel as a bold new initiative.
“This is a very decisive statement that clarifies that there is one party responsible for this situation and that is Hamas,” Netanyahu said in response. Commentators and pundits in Israel gushed over the strong words and harsh warning issued by the incoming president, at times using Trump’s message as a jab against President Biden for what some Israelis view as a weak response to the hostage crisis.
Those who believe Trump will succeed where Biden failed do not necessarily ignore the lack of details in his hostage-release statement or the cartoonish way in which he presented his threat. On the contrary, they see it as an advantage. Trump, many in Israel argue, is unpredictable and never follows the rules. He’s a loose cannon, which in this context is actually a compliment. And here’s how this rationale works: Hamas, and for that matter Netanyahu, see an incoming president determined to release the hostages and willing, perhaps, to use all means, whether they make sense or not, to achieve that goal. Fearing the unknown, they might feel pressured to sign a deal now, just in case Trump does decide to make good on his threats.
4. Can Biden Still Pull Off a Deal?
The Biden administration is still trying. Some in the administration have even said that chances of reaching a deal are better than ever before since suddenly all parts are falling into place: The Lebanon cease-fire cut Hamas off from the support it was getting from Hezbollah and put an end to its dream of turning October 7 into a permanent regional war; Assad’s fall in Syria will have a similar effect on Hamas; Israel, free from dealing with a war on its northern front, can be more confident about reaching a deal in Gaza; and above all, Netanyahu may be feeling that saying “yes” to a hostage deal will sweeten relations with the incoming administration by granting Trump the gift of a first diplomatic victory, even before entering office.
There are some encouraging signs on the ground, including reports that Hamas has been demonstrating more flexibility in talks with the negotiators. And still, the chances of reaching a deal in the coming weeks remain low. Negotiations are sporadic and are kept to low-level representatives. Key issues, including the question of Israeli forces remaining in Gaza after the deal and whether the cease-fire will be full or temporary, are far from being resolved. In addition, there’s no real leverage to exert. There’s nothing Biden can do or say to Netanyahu at this point that will make the Israeli leader speed up the process and show more willingness to compromise.
It’s a frustrating ending for Biden’s efforts. He not only seemed to be doing everything right by utilizing all of America’s diplomatic force and investing vast amounts of time and energy on all government levels, he also added his unique Biden touch of true compassion and caring for the desperate families fighting for the release of their loved ones. Sometimes, it’s just not enough.
5. One Last Latke, and a Few Dashed Hopes
It’s a Chrismukkah year, one of those not-so-rare occurrences in which Hanukkah and Christmas coincide. And it is also the last Washington Hanukkah for Joe Biden and for Kamala Harris. Both will be hosting their traditional Hanukkah receptions (way before the holiday actually begins—blame it on Chrismukkah) and for both it will serve as an opportunity to bid farewell to their friends and supporters in the Jewish community.
Unlike Trump, who pulled a Grover Cleveland and returned to the White House after one term out in the cold, it is safe to say that Biden, and most likely Harris, will never get to host another official Hanukkah celebration. Of course, that’s not the worst thing about losing an election, but it is a symbolic end to their political careers.
For many of their Jewish supporters, it will also mark the end of their dream to see a Jewish first gentleman, a mezuzah on the White House front door, and much more yiddishkeit generally at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
And yet, although the White House won’t have its first Jewish resident, it will still be home for a president with a Jewish daughter and grandchildren and will host just-as-marvelous Hanukkah receptions, with crispy latkes and kosher lamb chops.
Top image: The red part is what was displayed in Syria on TV. It reads “Victory of the great Syrian revolution and the fall of the criminal al-Assad regime” (Credit: Fabio Rodrigues Pozzebom/ABr (CC BY 3.0 BR) / Staff Sgt. William Howard).