Today’s prisoner exchange freeing Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Vladimir Kara-Murza, along with a slew of others, is being reported as the largest prisoner swap since the Cold War. A key piece of the puzzle in negotiations, according to reports, was Russian political assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was serving a life sentence in Germany for the 2019 killing of a Chechen dissident in Berlin. Meanwhile, the political assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran two days ago has turned up the heat in the war between Israel and its enemies in the region.
Among the recent strikes on Hamas leaders, the killing of Haniyeh stood out. The longtime head of Hamas’s political wing was killed in an explosion in Tehran on Tuesday. Haniyeh had been in the Iranian capital to mark the inauguration of newly elected Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian. While Israeli involvement has not been confirmed, the Iranians have blamed Israel for the assassination.
While Israel has in the past carried out operations in Iran, including the Stuxnet attack on an Iranian nuclear facility and the killings of numerous Iranian nuclear scientists between 2010 and 2020, it has been reluctant to strike Iran directly, partially due to U.S. concern over the possibility of a wider regional war.
Haniyeh had long been a prominent figure in Palestinian politics, having been involved with Hamas since its inception during the First Intifada (1987-1993). After multiple stints in Israeli prison, Haniyeh rose through the ranks to become the political head of Hamas, leading the group’s electoral list in the 2006 Palestinian elections, which Hamas won. They were subsequently declared illegitimate by the United States, Israel and Fatah, who did not wish to see Hamas take control of the Palestinian government. From 2006 until 2017, Haniyeh was the leader of Hamas in Gaza before transitioning to the head of the politburo and being replaced by Yahya Sinwar, a man widely regarded as the architect of the October 7 terror attacks.
On October 7, 2023, Haniyeh was infamously filmed in Istanbul praising the attacks. Israeli officials vowed to assassinate him and others involved in the planning of the massacre. A week later, Haniyeh left Turkey for Qatar; both countries are U.S. allies, and Israel has been cautious about carrying out operations against Hamas operatives in either state, in part out of concern for how it might affect the hostage negotiations. In April, Israel killed three of Haniyeh’s sons and three of his grandchildren in a strike in Gaza. And in May it was reported that ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan was seeking arrest warrants for Haniyeh, along with Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri, as well as for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
The killing of Haniyeh took place a mere day after the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in retaliation for the militant group’s deadly attack on a soccer field in the Golan Heights on Saturday. And yesterday Israel confirmed the suspected July killing of Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif. These events, and in particular the assassination of Haniyeh on Iranian soil, threaten to escalate the conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies. The Islamic Republic reportedly plans a direct strike on Israel in response to the killing.
Back in April, after the Israeli bombing of a consulate building next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus that killed a senior military official within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran made similar threats, eventually attacking Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles, the vast majority of which were struck down by Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Jordan, with intelligence support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While the Iranian attack was largely ineffective, resulting in minor damages and injuries, there was one casualty, an Israeli-Bedouin girl. Still, it served as a face-saving measure for the Iranians. President Biden characterized the allied response as a major win for Israel and warned Netanyahu against any retaliation against Iran, hoping to preempt a wider regional war. This time around, the United States has again pledged its support for Israel, with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressing an “unwavering commitment” to Israel’s security.
In addition to a potential Iranian retaliation, the killing of Haniyeh has implications for the on-again-off-again cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with the Qataris and Americans both expressing concern that Haniyeh’s killing could derail talks and even close the door on a hostage deal.