After 468 days and more than a year of on-again/off-again negotiations, Israel and Hamas have finally reached a deal. Israelis have responded with joy, relief, trepidation, rage and hope, expressed on social media and on the streets, where thousands are demonstrating for and against the agreement.
After new sets of obstacles and postponements on Thursday, the government first announced that the impediments had been resolved and the deal would be approved on Friday. But late Thursday evening, Israel time, spokespersons announced that the vote would take place over the weekend and as late as Monday, because there was “not enough time to convene” before Shabbat begins on sundown on Friday.
This means it is unclear when implementation of the plan will actually begin. But whenever, if ever, such implementation begins, it will already have been delayed by at least a few days. Moreover, even if it does eventually get on track, it is important to note that this is a three-stage deal, spreading over a 42-day period, with so many potholes and bumps along the road that it is as likely to fail as it is to succeed. And if it does fail, the results could be catastrophic for the hostages that would remain in Gaza, for the Gazans themselves, for all of Israeli society and for the entire region.
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Hamas is believed to be holding some 98 hostages, including seven Americans. At least half of the hostages are presumed to be alive. In the first stage (42 days), Hamas will return 33 hostages, including women, children, men over the age of 55 and some of the wounded. But if the living don’t add up to 33, dead bodies will be handed over to complete the count. Since Hamas has never released a list of the living and the dead, tragically, this may be the first time some of the families of the hostages learn about the fate of their loved ones. Depending on the numbers, this could cause severe backlash in Israel and growing resentment and objection against the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Israel is expected to release 30 Palestinian prisoners for each live civilian hostage and 50 for each live female soldier. The list of the prisoners to be released has not been made public, and will, apparently, be determined by Israel, but it is clear that several hundred of the released prisoners will, in Israeli parlance, “have blood on their hands.” Meaning that they murdered Israelis.
But according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokespersons, Hamas is demanding that it determine which prisoners will be released.
And so we come to the first possible pothole on the road just to complete the first stage. According to Israeli law, the release of even a single Palestinian prisoner as part of a diplomatic deal requires first cabinet and then full governmental approval for each and every one. In theory, then, members of the prime minister’s coalition could scuttle the deal by refusing to approve the lists. This is unlikely to topple the government, however, since even if the more extreme members of the coalition, such as Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich and Minister of Interior Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, were to pull out, Netanyahu’s government retains a safe majority.
But if additional members of their parties were to bolt with them, then the government would become a very unstable minority, with little ability to conduct the ongoing negotiations.
Moreover, people who feel that the release of a specific prisoner is an injustice to them are entitled to petition Israel’s High Court of Justice. Although that court has never intervened in these decisions in any way, the petitions could seriously delay the process. Members of right-wing groups, including some who have been active in the settle-Gaza movement, could thus petition the court to hold up the negotiations or even send them off track.
In this first, 42-day stage, humanitarian aid is supposed to flow into Gaza, and displaced Gazans are supposed to begin to return to whatever is left of their homes and Israel will partially withdraw to a buffer zone more than a half-mile wide. The deal includes no provision or even expectation that Hamas will surrender its weapons or missiles.
Herein lies another possible bump in the road. Israel continued its airstrikes on Gaza on Thursday, while Hamas lobbed at least one missile into Israel. Since rules of engagement have not been determined, it is possible that any armed incident could serve as an excuse for resumed fighting. And even the humanitarian aid is not without difficulties, since even before the war, Israel was restricting entry of some equipment, arguing it could be used for military purposes by Hamas, and arrangements are still being worked out for supervision and distribution.
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Within two weeks of the beginning of stage one, stage two is supposed to begin. And the road to completing this stage as well as the third stage could be even more hazardous.
During stage two, Hamas is supposed to free remaining male hostages, and Israeli troops are supposed to fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip. But this withdrawal, with Hamas still in place, negates Netanyahu’s constantly repeated declaration that Israel would withdraw only after it achieved “total victory” over Hamas. This “total victory” was never clearly articulated, but at least to some in Netanyahu’s constituent base, it seemed that it would include Israeli settlements in Gaza.
By stage three, the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages are supposed to be exchanged for bodies of Palestinian prisoners. But what if these bodies cannot be found? Some may have been buried in mass graves by Hamas members who are no longer alive; some may be held by other, more extremist groups, such as the Islamic Jihad.
Border crossings for movement in and out of Gaza are supposed to reopen, and mass reconstruction is supposed to begin.
But who is supposed to be responsible? Israel is still committed to its plan to ban UNRWA, the UN agency, from operating in Israel and the occupied territories, even though it is the major distributor of aid in Gaza and provides basic and social welfare services to all Palestinians (including in the West Bank).
And now, here comes the biggest obstacle on this road. Netanyahu has consistently refused to discuss the question of “the day after”—that is, who will rule in Gaza? His refusal apparently stemmed from his hope that he could block any return of the Palestinian Authority into Gaza. But Israel has also firmly declared that it will never agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’s military and political capabilities are eliminated, so that it cannot run Gaza in any way. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from the entirety of the Gaza Strip.
Politically and practically, therefore, Netanyahu has many reasons—and even more excuses—to resume the fighting.
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Directing traffic is President-elect Donald Trump, who, as always, remains unpredictable.
Counting on their touted bromance, Netanyahu was sure that when Trump declared that there would be “hell to pay” if there was no agreement in Gaza, he was referring to the Palestinians. But he seems to have not understood that Trump has always been transactional rather than relational or ideological.
Netanyahu and his right wing, who have so openly supported Trump, thought they’d get a deal that includes settlement in Gaza, or at least annexation of the West Bank—something that Trump’s ambassador to Israel designate, Mike Huckabee, favors.
But that’s not the deal Trump wants. He wants the real deal—an arrangement with Saudi Arabia, return to the Abraham Accords and regional realignment. And none of that will happen unless Saudi Arabia is convinced that the Palestinians get something, too—most probably in the form of a state or at least preliminary-state status.
For Israelis, even if they suspect the road charted by this agreement may not really be leading anywhere, they wait, some hesitantly joyful, others filled with apprehension and trepidation, for the hostages to come home. They’ve been waiting 468 days.
Top image: Families of the Israeli hostages in Gaza demonstrating in front of the Kirya for the conclusion of a hostage deal on September 4, 2024 (Credit: Oren Rozen (CC BY-SA 4.0)).