Last week, Western intelligence sources quoted anonymously by Sky News Arabia claimed that Iran and Hezbollah may launch a retaliatory attack on Israel on Tisha B’Av, August 12. While there is no other reporting that corroborates this, The Times of Israel and The Jerusalem Post have both cited the Sky News Arabia account.
Tisha B’Av, a day of mourning commemorating the destruction of the first and second Jewish temples, will begin at sunset on August 12 and end at nightfall on August 13. In Jewish history, Tisha B’Av is steeped in traumatic loss, leading to speculation that the goal of such an attack would be to magnify the emotional and psychological impact on Israelis and the Jewish community.
It wouldn’t be the first time Israel’s adversaries timed attacks during major Jewish holidays to catch the nation off guard. October 7 coincided with Simchat Torah and Shabbat, and 1973’s Yom Kippur War began with an attack on Israel on that year’s holiest day. This strategy brings an element of surprise while striking at a vulnerable time.
Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last week in Tehran, Iran and Hezbollah vowed to strike Israel directly, even though Israel has not publicly confirmed its involvement in Haniyeh’s assassination. In anticipation of a retaliatory strike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel “will exact a very heavy price from any aggression against us on any front,” raising concerns about a larger-scale war in the Middle East.
The Shin Bet security service reportedly has prepared the underground bunker in Jerusalem, known as the National Management Center, for Netanyahu and other senior military and government officials. The bunker was built after the Second Lebanon War in 2006 but hasn’t been used in the past ten months of Israel’s war in Gaza.
While Iran has said it is not looking to escalate regional tensions, it still believes “punishing Israel is necessary” to establish stability in the region, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani.
To prevent escalation in the anticipated attack by Iran and its proxies against Israel, the Biden administration is engaging in an intensive diplomatic effort with its Middle Eastern allies and partners.“We have made clear that we will defend Israel against attacks from Iran, against attacks from terrorist groups,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller at a press briefing on Monday. “We are at a critical moment for the region, and it is important that all parties take steps over the coming days to refrain from escalation and calm tensions. Escalation is in no one’s interest.”